There is no Luck without Reflection

Amar Pandit , CFA , CFP

One area where we have not evolved much (despite going to the Moon and Mars) is in investing. 

Many people pretty much continue to follow the formula depicted by the Behaviour Gap sketch.

I met someone who said “Stock market investments don’t work for me. I have been unlucky the last 30 years.

Does this sound familiar? Have you come across someone saying this?

When I look at it objectively, the markets have done well for the last 30 years and have delivered double digit returns. What happened in his case? Was he really unlucky? I do not think so.

The reality is that this gentleman did not have 30 years of experience. He had 1 year with 30 experiences making the same mistakes.

He still tries to time the market and reacts to headlines (and events). The kryptonite in his case is not “luck” but the inability to reflect and learn from his mistakes.

Reflection gives us the superpower of turning our experiences into learning and better decisions. In fact, Reflection develops our Luck.

Teachers and Authors, Pete Hall and Alisa Simeral’s quote reads “The more reflective you are, the more effective you are.” I rephrase this to “The more reflective you are, the luckier you get.

Try it out and see if Reflection makes you Lucky. I bet it will.