The Bigger Story

Amar Pandit , CFA , CFP

I had an interesting conversation with a learned person who said, “Amar, SIPs are helping FIIs exit. What do you have to say to that?”

I told him that his statement is partly true, but deeply incomplete.

It is one of those comments that sounds intelligent because it contains a kernel of truth.

Yes, when FIIs sell and domestic mutual funds buy, the mutual funds are often buying shares that FIIs are selling. In that narrow transactional sense, SIPs provide liquidity to exiting FIIs.

But stopping the analysis there is like saying: “When you buy a house, you’re only helping the seller exit.”

This is technically true but economically superficial.

The real question is: Who benefits over the long run?

Let’s look at it differently.

Suppose Warren Buffett decides to sell Coca-Cola or Apple. If you buy those shares, are you helping Buffett exit or are you becoming the new owner of a wonderful business?

Ownership has simply changed hands.

The important question is not who soldIt is who now owns the asset.

That is exactly what is happening in India.

For decades, Indian businesses were disproportionately owned by foreign capital.

Today, a growing share is being owned by Indian households…That is a structural shift.

Could FIIs be selling because valuations are expensive?

Absolutely.

Could they be reallocating capital to another country?

Yes.

Could they need liquidity back home?

Yes.

Could they simply have a different mandate?

Again, yes.

Foreign investors don’t sell only because India is unattractive.

They sell for hundreds of reasons.

Similarly, domestic mutual funds don’t buy because they are trying to rescue FIIs.

They buy because millions of Indians are investing every month for retirement, children’s education and long-term wealth creation.

Those are completely different motivations.

There is another flaw in the “SIPs help FIIs exit” argument.

It assumes FIIs are always the smarter side of the trade.

History simply doesn’t support that.

There have been countless occasions when FIIs sold heavily and later bought back at much higher prices.

Likewise, there have been times when they bought aggressively near market peaks.

FIIs are sophisticated but they are not infallible.

There is an important point many miss…FIIs are not one investor. They are thousands of different institutions such as pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, insurance companies and so on…each with different objectives, constraints and time horizons.

Lumping them together as one “smart investor” is misleading.

The bigger question I would ask is this: Would you rather Indian companies increasingly be owned by Indian savers or by overseas capital?

To me, the answer is obvious.

A country becomes financially stronger when its own citizens increasingly own its productive assets. The United States didn’t become financially powerful because foreigners owned American companies. American households, pension funds, insurance companies and retirement accounts became enormous owners of American enterprise.

India appears to be moving in that direction.

That is healthy…That said, there is one caution.

If domestic flows become completely price insensitive and continue buying regardless of valuation, valuations can become stretched. That is a legitimate concern, and one every investor should be understand. Strong domestic participation is a structural positive, but it does not mean valuations no longer matter.

I would respond to those “extra learned people” with this:

Yes, SIPs are providing liquidity to FIIs who wish to sell. That is how markets function. Every buyer enables a seller, and every seller enables a buyer. But the far more important story is not who is exiting. It is who is becoming the long-term owner of India’s productive assets. That is the real structural shift.

In twenty years, I suspect history won’t remember that FIIs sold $28 billion or $50 billion worth of equities in one particular year.

It will remember that millions of Indian families quietly became owners of Indian businesses, and I believe that is the much bigger story.