Socrates was asked, “What basis is wisdom built on?”

His answer was simple: “I know that I don’t know.”

Let that settle in for a moment.

Now, look around.

Everywhere you turn, someone is making bold predictions.

Experts on television. Analysts in newspapers. Finfluencers on social media.

They claim to know exactly what will happen next.

Markets will crash. Markets will soar. This stock is the next big thing. That sector is dead.

And because we crave certainty, we believe them.

We listen to people who act as if they know everything.

But here’s the truth.

The enemy of progress is the illusion of certainty.

People who claim to know the future with confidence are either lying or delusional.

The real thinkers, the real leaders, don’t play that game.

They don’t pretend to have all the answers.

They have the courage to say: “I don’t know.”

Not in a naive way.

Not in a way that signals weakness.

But in a way that exudes confidence.

Because it is the truth.

No one knows what will happen tomorrow.

No one knows where the market will be in a month or a year.

No one can predict the next crisis, recovery, or rally.

But here’s the difference between those who pretend to know and those who are truly wise.

The wise admit their ignorance.

And because they do, they make better decisions.

They focus on what they can control.

They avoid speculation and guesswork.

They build portfolios that don’t depend on perfect predictions.

They invest with a long-term mindset.

And they understand that progress, in investing and in life, comes not from certainty but from humility.

Now, let’s talk about some fundamental truths that most investors ignore.

The stock market usually goes up.

Not every day. Not every month. But over decades, the direction is clear.

The bad days and the good days of the stock market are often right next to each other.

This means there is no way to only experience the good part of the market.

You don’t get to skip the volatility.

You don’t get to only enjoy the rallies without enduring the corrections.

The long game is undefeated.

There is nothing—absolutely nothing—that the stock market has not overcome.

World wars. Pandemics. Recessions. Oil shocks. Inflation. Financial crises.

The market has always recovered. And not just recovered—it has grown stronger.

This is why long-term investors win.

This is why patience is an edge.

Because in the short term, markets are unpredictable.

But in the long term, markets are relentlessly upward.

There is no such thing as an average return.

People quote long-term averages—10% per year, 12% per year.

But no single year is ever “average.”

Some years return 30%. Some years return -20%.

Some years do nothing at all.

And yet, over decades, markets deliver compounding wealth.

Now, here’s something most investors don’t fully grasp.

Stocks offer asymmetric returns.

This means the maximum you can lose in a diversified portfolio of stocks is 60+% (this happened during the Global Financial Crisis). Let’s say 70-80%.

But what can you gain?

10X? 100X? 500X?

This is not a recommendation for this fund, but Nippon India Growth Fund has gone from a NAV of Rs.10 to around Rs.4,059 (400 times in 30 years). There are many diversified funds that have gone up 100X times. 

Wouldn’t you want those odds?

Wouldn’t you want to invest in an asset class where your upside is virtually unlimited, while your downside is capped?

This is why time in the market beats timing the market.

This is why patience beats panic.

This is why staying invested is the only strategy that has ever worked.

Investing is about discipline, not predictions.

It’s about understanding uncertainty, not avoiding it.

It’s about knowing that “I don’t know” is not a weakness—it’s wisdom.

The best investors in the world don’t try to predict the next crash.

They build resilient portfolios.

They bet on progress.

They trust in the power of compounding.

Because the real risk is not volatility.

The real risk is missing out on the long-term returns that only the stock market can offer.

So, when the noise gets louder, when fear dominates the headlines, and when people claim to know what’s next, remember this:

The only wisdom that matters in investing is the ability to say—“I don’t know.”

And invest anyway.