The End Of History Illusion
Dan Gilbert said these brilliant words – “Human beings are works in progress that mistakenly think they’re finished.”
You are not the same person you were ten years ago.
Your preferences have changed. Your priorities have shifted. Your understanding of the world has evolved.
Yet, right now, you believe that the person you are today is the final version of you. That your beliefs, desires, and goals will remain constant.
He calls it the End of History Illusion.
Dan Gilbert’s research shows that people consistently underestimate how much they will change in the future.We look back and see how much we have grown, but we assume that today’s version of us is complete.
Investors fall into this trap all the time.
You believe your current risk tolerance is fixed. That your comfort with volatility won’t change. That the way you feel about money today is the way you’ll always feel.
But history says otherwise.
When markets are soaring, you think you’ll always be comfortable with risk. When markets crash, you suddenly realize that your emotions are not what you thought they were.
You believe your goals are permanent. That the dream you have today is the dream you’ll always have. But life happens. Priorities shift. What seemed important at 30 might not matter at 50.
You assume your financial decisions today will always align with your future self. But your future self will look back and wonder why you made those choices.
This is why long-term investing is so difficult.
You are planning for a version of yourself that doesn’t exist yet. You are making decisions today that will impact a future you—someone with different experiences, different wisdom, and different priorities.
So, what should you do?
First, acknowledge that change is inevitable.You will not be the same person in ten years. Neither will your financial needs.
Second, build flexibility into your financial life plan. Give yourself room to adapt. Make decisions that allow for change rather than locking yourself into rigid outcomes.
Third, avoid making emotional decisions based on who you are today. Because tomorrow, you might see things very differently.
Long-term success in investing is about accepting uncertainty—not just in the markets, but in yourself.
You are a work in progress. Your financial life plan should reflect that.
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