It wasn’t that long ago, just a few months back that you and I could scroll through our feeds and see headlines screaming:
“Nvidia’s Rally Is Overdone.”
“China’s DeepSeek Threatens Nvidia’s Dominance.”
“US Export Controls Could Cripple Chip Giant.”
“AI Bubble to Pop – Just Like Dotcom?”
And on and on and on.

And to be fair, they had facts.

DeepSeek was real.
China was flexing.
Export restrictions were tightening.

The stock did fall by 37% in just four months.

And all the brilliant analyses, the neat charts, the hand-wringing on valuation multiples, they sounded so convincing.

But today, Nvidia is the first company to hit a $4 trillion market cap.

A chipmaker.
Not a social network. Not a smartphone company. A chip company.

And if you asked most people even five years ago whether that would happen, they’d have laughed.

The Fog of the Future

This is what I want every serious investor to think about today:
No matter how smart we are… we don’t know.
No matter how many expert takes we consume… we don’t know.
No matter how many fancy predictions, moving averages, or bulletproof spreadsheets… we don’t know.

Because the future is not a spreadsheet.

It’s a story that keeps being rewritten by people who dare to dream, build, break, rebuild, and push the boundaries of what’s possible.

Just look at Nvidia:
In January, the same “experts” who had a certain price target were downgrading it bigtime because the thinking was that DeepSeek training efficiency and algorithmic breakthroughs might reduce demand for Nvidia chips.
Because China might never buy another high-end GPU.

It’s not that these analysts were stupid.
They were looking at today’s facts.

But markets are not just about today’s facts; they’re about tomorrow’s possibilities.

The Correction Was Real. The Business Was Too.

Between January and April, Nvidia fell 37%.
People who believed the doom headlines got out.
Some shorted it.
Some “booked profits” (an activity that sounds smart but can be ruinous if you don’t know why you own something).

Others just sat still holding their position while everyone screamed “overvalued!”

And today, those who sat still who trusted the business, who trusted the long runway of AI, who trusted Jensen Huang’s execution are the ones watching a company that’s rebounded 74% from its lows.

And here’s the thing:
Nvidia’s market cap is now $4 trillion.
It could be $6 trillion in 2028.
Or it could be $3 trillion.
Or $1.5 trillion.

We. Don’t. Know.

The Lesson Is Not That Nvidia Will Always Win

Please don’t get me wrong.
This is not a pitch for Nvidia stock.
This is not a projection that the price will keep doubling every few years.
This is not a guarantee that the same past will repeat.

This is a reminder of what markets actually teach us if we care to listen.

Companies can and do fall 30-50% in a heartbeat.
Media headlines will always explain why you should sell just when you shouldn’t.

Valuation models will always “prove” it’s overvalued until reality leaps ahead of them.

What Should You Do With This?

First: Remember why you invest.

You don’t invest in “stocks”; you invest in businesses.
And businesses do not move in straight lines.

They grow. They stumble. They adapt. They reinvent. They surprise.

Second: Respect the fact that you will never see the whole picture in real time.
Hindsight is always 20/20.
Real-time investing is messy, uncomfortable, foggy.

The question is never, “Is this stock too high or too low today?”
It’s: “Do I trust this business? Do I trust its moat? Do I trust its leaders? And do I trust my plan?”

Third: Prepare for corrections.
If a 37% correction can shake you out of a $4 trillion company’s stock, then your plan was weak not the company.

Volatility is not a glitch. It’s the fee.
The real risk is not the drop; it’s panicking when it drops.

The Only Thing Certain Is Uncertainty

There will always be a DeepSeek.
There will always be a new export control.
There will always be a “bubble is bursting” headline.
There will always be a day when someone says, “This is it. It’s over.”

And then, there will be a day just like today, when the same company does the “impossible.”

And if you keep interrupting your compounding journey because you fear the uncertainty, you will never get to witness what happens next.

Don’t treat today’s Nvidia headline as your next “tip.”
Treat it as your next lesson.

A reminder that even the biggest, most respected companies will get punched in the face repeatedly on their way to rewriting the rules.
A reminder that media noise will never go away.
A reminder that prediction is entertaining, but discipline is wealth.

If you take one thing from this:
Don’t pretend you know the future.
Respect the fact that you don’t.
Build a plan that allows you to stay invested anyway.

And when the corrections come as they always do, remember this:
It’s only noise if you know your reasons.
It’s only fatal if you forget them.

Stay invested.
Stay thoughtful.
And stay humble because the market always reminds us: we know less than we think.