The 12.75% Promise – Part 2
After reading Part 1, a friend called me.
“Fine,” he said.
“I understand there is no free lunch.”
“But explain one thing.”
“If these products are not magical, where does the 12.75% come from?”
Excellent question.
Because every investment return comes from somewhere.
If someone promises a return, the first question should be:
Who is paying for it?
The second should be:
What risk am I taking to earn it?
Most structured products are nothing more than combinations of simple building blocks packaged to look sophisticated.
Think of it like a chef.
The dish may look complicated.
But underneath it is still made from basic ingredients.
The same is true here.
Most structures are built using some combination of:
Bonds.
Equities.
Options.
Derivatives.
And a healthy dose of marketing.
Let’s start with a simple example.
Imagine I have Rs.100.
Instead of investing the entire amount in equities, I invest a large portion in fixed income securities.
The remaining amount is used to buy options.
These options create specific outcomes.
Perhaps participation if markets rise.
Perhaps limited downside.
Perhaps a fixed payout if markets stay within a range.
The final package is then marketed as:
“Earn 12.75% if markets remain flat.”
Sounds wonderful.
But notice what happened.
No magic was created.
The structure simply rearranged risk and return.
That is all.
In another common structure, the payoff depends on a specific market outcome.
For example:
If the NIFTY remains above a certain level, you earn 13.5%.
If it falls below that level, the outcome may be very different.
The sales pitch focuses on the first part.
The term sheet focuses on the second.
Investors usually read the first.
Lawyers usually read the second.
That is why the devil lives in the details.
Now let’s talk about some risks that rarely appear in the sales presentation.
The first is outcome risk.
Many investors believe they are buying a return.
They are actually buying a condition and conditions matter a lot.
The product works beautifully if certain events occur.
Unfortunately, markets are under no obligation to cooperate.
A slight change in market behavior can produce dramatically different outcomes.
The second risk is complexity risk.
Warren Buffett once said:
“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
Many investors buying structured products cannot explain the payoff structure to their spouse.
They cannot explain it to their children.
And often they cannot explain it to themselves six months later.
If you need a thirty-page document to understand how your money makes money, you should pause.
Complexity is not always bad but complexity almost always benefits somebody.
The question is whether it benefits you.
The third risk is liquidity risk.
Many structured products are not designed for easy exits.
Life, however, does not care about lock-in periods.
Emergencies happen.
Opportunities arise.
Circumstances change.
What appears liquid when you buy it may become surprisingly illiquid when you need it.
The fourth risk is issuer risk.
Many investors believe they are taking market risk.
Sometimes they are also taking credit risk.
Your return may depend not just on what markets do but also on the financial strength of the institution that issued the structure.
That distinction becomes important during periods of stress.
The fifth risk is opportunity cost.
This is perhaps the most misunderstood risk of all.
Imagine the market rises 25%.
Your structure delivers 12.75%.
Technically, the product worked.
You received exactly what was promised.
Yet you may still be worse off.
The product did not lose money.
It simply limited your participation.
The risk wasn’t losing.
The risk was not winning enough.
Most investors never think about opportunity cost.
Yet it is one of the largest hidden costs in investing.
And then there is the most dangerous risk of all.
Behavioral risk.
Because structured products often create an illusion.
An illusion that uncertainty has been conquered.
An illusion that investing has become safer.
An illusion that complexity creates certainty.
It doesn’t.
The future remains uncertain.
Markets remain unpredictable.
Human behavior remains irrational.
Nothing has changed.
The uncertainty has simply been packaged differently.
Years ago, I met a gentleman who proudly showed me a folder containing structured products he had accumulated over a decade.
Each one had an attractive story.
Each one had a compelling pitch.
Each one promised a better risk-reward outcome.
When we analyzed the portfolio, something fascinating emerged.
His best wealth creator was not a single structured product.
It was a plain vanilla diversified equity portfolio.
The structures had consumed enormous amounts of attention.
The boring portfolio had quietly created most of the wealth.
That is often how investing works.
The things that sound exciting rarely create extraordinary wealth.
The things that create extraordinary wealth rarely sound exciting.
Compounding is boring.
Diversification is boring.
Asset allocation is boring.
Discipline is boring.
Patience is boring.
And yet these boring ideas have created more wealth than all the clever structures combined.
I am not arguing that every structured product is bad.
Some may be appropriate for sophisticated investors with very specific objectives.
But most investors should remember one simple principle.
The purpose of investing is not to find the cleverest product.
The purpose of investing is to achieve your goals.
Those are very different things.
Whenever somebody offers you a product that appears to deliver more return with less risk, ask three questions.
Where does the return come from?
What risk am I taking?
What am I giving up?
Because every investment involves trade-offs.
Always.
The moment someone suggests otherwise, your skepticism should increase not decrease.
In the end, the greatest wealth creators are rarely the most complex investments.
They are usually the simplest ones that investors had the discipline to hold for decades.
And perhaps that is the biggest lesson of all.
Complexity often sells.
Simplicity often wins.



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